I wrote a post on my blog a couple days ago about Jeremy Lin's turnover "problem". (I don't think it's a huge problem, even though Lin did his best to make me look foolish last night). Predictably, I suppose, this post has received hundreds of hits from people searching for "Jeremy Lin turnovers". The turnover issue is also one that often comes up when discussing Stephen Curry. Curry averages 3.2 TOV per 36 minutes. Lin is averaging a whopping 5.4 TOV per 36 minutes. Steve Nash averages 4.2, Jason Kidd averages 2.7, and Chris Paul just 2.1. Lin's TOV rate seems high, but if Curry has a turnover problem, then doesn't Steve Nash? How do we judge different players in different systems with different teammates and different ball handling responsibilities? And what is the impact of these turnovers? Go to the jump to see my take on turnovers.
It's clear that the Warriors are expected to have trouble stopping the Thunder's offense. On the other end, you might be surprised (shocked even?) to learn that the Warriors currently have the 6th best offensive efficiency in the league according to Synergy. And you are probably somewhat less surprised to learn that the Thunder have the 7th highest rated defensive efficiency. What's going to give in that battle? Let's look underneath the hood a little bit to see if we can answer that question, and maybe come up with an offensive game plan.
Warriors have played 15 games. The cake is not fully baked, but it's definitely in the oven at this point. If this season was an episode Iron Chef, would there be time to start from scratch and maybe change up the recipe a bit? Are there some different offensive strategies that might be utilized or implemented by Mark Jackson? Let's take a look at some Synergy stats to see if there are any helpful ideas we can glean.
Sometimes, I'll go for a few days without any good idea for a post. But then I'll read something that irks me. This morning, it's this piece from Rusty Simmons:
For the third game in a row, a member of the Warriors' "Big 3" (insert your own quip here) was missing. This time it was David Lee's turn to force us to wonder how much he's worth. Let's see if Synergy can help answer that question. Warning: The following post may contain conclusions that are jumped to and sample sizes that could star in a Broadway production.
First of all, Happy New Year, everyone! And I won't blame you if you don't want to look at these numbers after last night's disappointing (to say the least) performance by the Monta-less Warriors (this is the part where I say, hey, small sample size, just one game, yada yada, but still...). But for those who do venture beyond the jump, I do have something new for you...
Just renewed my Synergy subscription so I'll be able to provide "real-time" game recaps this season for you guys. The idea is that we'll be able to see patterns emerging over the course of the season. Has our post offense improved? Are we still one of the best spot-up teams? Those are the some of the "advanced" questions that Synergy can be used to answer.
Win projections. Everybody's got them. Here are mine, constructed by averaging the latest multi-year RAPM ratings and my own ezPM ratings over the past two seasons with a little "massaging" and intuition thrown in. Head after the jump for a table of the predictions and a few thoughts on the season.
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