People betting on stuff.
I've been calculating Vegas Power Ratings this season based on all the spreads for every game. It's interesting and informative to know how a team rates according to Vegas, because as you probably already know, it's very tough to beat Vegas. Therefore, I would argue their rating system is probably better than virtually any other "lay person" rating you'll find on the web. In other words, when you find a rating system that can consistently beat Vegas, let me know. Or better yet, don't tell anyone, and try to make some money off of it. Chances are, if the guy posting the ratings could beat Vegas, he would keep that system to himself, don't you think?
Click image to enlarge.
By my eyes, there looks to be about 7 fairly distinct "tiers" according to Vegas:
You guys are welcome to argue with my classification, of course. Going by Vegas, we're currently the 9th worst team in the league. With a -2.51 rating, in a normal season, we would be expected to win 35 games. In this shortened season, that translates to 28 wins. The interesting thing is that Vegas sees a real gap between us and Toronto. If I'm using this as a crystal ball, that means it might be tough for us to finish worse than the 9th worst record (although due to scheduling, it's true that absolute rating is not always going to be equivalent to final record).
So, what do you guys think? Are we better than what Vegas thinks? Worse? Or about right?
0 recs | 59 comments
Interesting.
I’d say the Vegas ratings are pretty accurate, but I think some teams would be higher or lower if this was a full, spread out season.
thermodynamic - February 1, 2012
technically you can have a better system than vegas, where vegas would still win in the end because of the vig
you’d have to have a significantly better system than vegas to win money.
bigkino217 - February 1, 2012
They get their cut, but in this case, they have to make sure the bettors bet evenly. Too many bets or a big bet to one side...
could have them paying out and losing money. In games of chance, then the odds favor them in the long run.
I would bump UTA to 3rd tier if they were healthy and HOU could go to 4th tier if they get someone hurt. GSW has no business being in 5th tier. It means root for the Warriors, but bet against them FTW.
callahan - February 1, 2012
Great stuff, Evanz! I am looking for the LAC and BOS to move up as the season progresses (bar injuries), and OKC (!) and GSW to move down a tier!
dinohealth - February 1, 2012
i very much agree with you
PIRATEWARRIOR - February 1, 2012
this isabsolute alignment with what I think
positioned perfectly to give Utah a nice pick this year
Duby Dub Dubs - February 1, 2012
Only 2 teams worse than us in the West, and we will still lose our pick
We have 12 teams in front of us. And supposedly we’re a playoff team.
Evanz - February 1, 2012
Supposedly, haha. Only to that voice of denial in Pastor Mark's head.
I can’t believe Lacob would be that stupid though, more like stubborn and cocky to a fault. It might take a few years to get his soul crushe by the suck that is the Warriors, but have no fear all, the suck is strong and will beat him down like it has us all. He’ll change that tank stance of his real quick. Book it.
kenntoe - February 1, 2012 via mobile
what really sucks and I'm just realizing is that we're awful compared to the West
but not awful enough compared to teams in the East, so we’ll lose our pick, anyway
it’s like the worst of all possible worlds being a Warriors fan
Evanz - February 1, 2012
Get serious. We are not going to lose our pick to UTA.
We can’t. We do not have anything else to look forward to. LOL.
callahan - February 1, 2012
Well, going into the season i'm pretty sure a lot of us realized that purgatory was the most likeliest of outcomes.
We’re not bottom 7 bad this year. We’re horrible in the West, but a borderline playoff team in the East. Lol.
I should just give up all hope that we’ll have a pick this summer. Ba-humbug.
kenntoe - February 1, 2012
Except we’re absolutely not moving to the East, so that’s not relevant at all, except that it makes our pick worse (or non-existent).
Evanz - February 1, 2012
This is my problem with the relentless tank talk
The Warriors are not one of the seven worst teams in the league as currently constructed. They are not going to keep that pick unless they make trades or suffer a plague of injuries. The only legit shot we have to keep it is if the ping pong balls do us a favor.
Pippen - February 1, 2012
don't count on it...
those selfish ping pong bastards haven’t done us a favor in years.
JimBarnett2KevinGarnett - February 1, 2012
Wouldn’t the West’s strength make it more likely we keep our pick? Those rankings are basically assuming a neutral schedule, right? So our strong WC schedule should help…
Missing Barry - February 2, 2012
That's a good point
I hadn’t really given that much consideration. They only have 18 games against the EC this year and they’ve already played 10 of them. I still think the EC will get at least 5 of the worst records and very possibly 6. The Hornets are pretty much guaranteed the worst record in the WC. That leaves GS, Sacramento, and Phoenix vying for the 7-8 spots. As long as Curry stays healthy I can’t envision the Warriors being one of the 7 worst teams in the league.
Pippen - February 2, 2012
It doesn't matter if they're wrong or right...
Vegas will ALWAYS win. But for the record, they’re pretty accurate. They have to be, it’s Vegas.
JonDoe - February 1, 2012
In this case, the two are mutually exclusive. If they are “wrong”, the won’t win.
Evanz - February 1, 2012
btw...
I forgot to mention, that Vegas uses 3 points for HCA
Also, if you look at the spread for a game where a player is injured, you can use these ratings to roughly figure out the ratings of individual players
Evanz - February 1, 2012
example..
Say that Chicago plays Houston at home (in Chicago). They should be roughly 9 point favorites (6 for the power rating differential and +3 for HCA). Imagine that Derrick Rose is hurt, though. The line might only be +7. That would suggest that Rose is worth 2 points for that game.
It doesn’t always work out, but you can definitely see this effect if you study enough games.
Evanz - February 1, 2012
Cool analysis.
Interested to see what Ellis, Curry, and Lee do for us on this scale.
Woody421 - February 1, 2012
I've called this "Vegas +/-" in the past
Evanz - February 1, 2012
Good stuff
mykelala01 - February 1, 2012
35 wins
the 82 game schedule projection, is within one game +/- of the average wins during the Cohan era, is it not ? Lacob has succeeded already nonetheless in boosting the value of the team despite a shrinking and moribund economy, in contrast to the way Cohan rode the nba and tech industry bubble, and that’s progress where it matters in Stern’s world.
the.monk - February 1, 2012
is it sad that i know that the picture is the sports book at caesar's palace?
bigkino217 - February 1, 2012
I'm going to Vegas in a few weeks
I’ll have to check it out
Evanz - February 1, 2012
i was just there on sunday
bigkino217 - February 1, 2012
where did you stay?
I’m staying at the Venetian
Evanz - February 1, 2012
i was at the palazzo
bigkino217 - February 1, 2012
is that new?
Evanz - February 1, 2012
its a newish (2007?) hotel connected to the venitian
and it’s owned by the same corporation as the venitian
bigkino217 - February 1, 2012
oh, good
Evanz - February 1, 2012
it is definitely caesar's palace in vegas...
if the camera were to span a little to the right, you would see bathroom stalls and the entrance to the caesar’ s palace poker room…ya i’m not a gambler and didn’t use to live in vegas or anything.
JimBarnett2KevinGarnett - February 1, 2012
Any thoughts on the Super Bowl?
I was thinking about putting a few dollars down on the Giants.
Pippen - February 2, 2012
I am sure there are statistics PhD's in Vegas
who feel like they aren’t compensated right and have broken off to beat the system they built in Vegas. Somewhere in this world, a man is making a fortune betting on sports not just because of luck.
Woody421 - February 1, 2012
it would make a good novel
Evanz - February 1, 2012
if you’re an insider or read espn the magazine theirs an article about a guy who’s just that. I think someone from IBM back in the day made a computer to “beat the odds” and those with access to the information made a ton of money.
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/insider/news/story?id=5867417&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d5867417
Balance - February 1, 2012
To add on to that
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/36339/sports-betting-hedge-fund-closes
Missing Barry - February 2, 2012
I'll bet you 5 bucks right now
Warriors don’t make the playoffs
Duby Dub Dubs - February 1, 2012
gotta give some major odds for that one ;)
bigkino217 - February 1, 2012
sure man...whatever you want
Duby Dub Dubs - February 1, 2012
a tougher bet would be do we get to keep our draft pick this year or do we finally square up on our debt?
PIRATEWARRIOR - February 1, 2012
vegas says we will finish 9th from the bottom.. so , NOT LIKELY.... ) :
PIRATEWARRIOR - February 1, 2012
yup, that's another bet I would take without hesitation
I think all of our worst fears are coming true…we are shaping up to give Utah a nice, sweet draft pick this year
Duby Dub Dubs - February 1, 2012
Do we call this the Ike Diogu spot?
Or the P.O.B spot? OR just plain old dubs spot?
JimBarnett2KevinGarnett - February 1, 2012
i think if there were odds for what draft pick the warriors would get
higher than 14 would be like +700
8-14 would be like -300
and 1-7 would be like +150
bigkino217 - February 1, 2012
hahah...that's pretty good..
although I would lay 1-7 at something like -105 or +105…we have picked in the top 7 two of the last 3 drafts and 4 of the last 10.
JimBarnett2KevinGarnett - February 1, 2012
this team seems more talented than previous years though
if you’re laying odds that low, you’re basically banking on steph’s ankle not holding up much longer.
bigkino217 - February 1, 2012
ya..+150 sounds about right for this year..
I was thinking more about the odds before a season starts the past couple years
JimBarnett2KevinGarnett - February 1, 2012
i thnk the bet here...
is to take the +700 bet and pray……..maybe a big trade or a healthy Steph and softer schedule turns it around and the warriors surprise everyone with a late season charge to the 8th spot.
JimBarnett2KevinGarnett - February 1, 2012
haha yea
it probably wouldn’t quite be +700
bigkino217 - February 1, 2012
Nothing like the $100 I'll win from this bet with "warriorsnut"
http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2011/12/16/2641242/reggie-williams-to-miss-6-8-weeks#85892284
Sucker didn’t even ask for odds. Haven’t seen him around for a while, though, of course.
Lacob's Ladder - February 1, 2012
hahaha
he’s registering a new screen name now
Duby Dub Dubs - February 1, 2012
lol…No doubt.
Lacob's Ladder - February 1, 2012
all i know is that i hope that we are either better or worse than what the guys over at Vegas thinks
im probably wrong though
TooShort2Play - February 1, 2012
btw,
thanks …great post..this is awesome…going to compare this with Stein and Hollinger’s rankings…I have a feeling vegas wins
JimBarnett2KevinGarnett - February 1, 2012
good post
i mentioned this last year when the new WP48xzr/Barrysuperwiz stat told us that we were projected to win 50 games with the addition of Lee and Amundson, etc. We even had a guy from Warriors world on the CSN round table who supported the notion. Man, what a fool.
I kept seeing it posted and mentioned a couple times on this site that it was crazy and that anyone who felt otherwise was welcome to bet the over 35 win line….. I think we won 36 but that’s not the point. The point is that vegas isn’t always right but they are usually very accurate.
From what i’ve gathered from your research i see 3 distinct teirs. The elite teams which range from Miami down to Dallas. The mediocre/ competitive group which range from Indiana down to GS and the Scrubs which range from Utah down to CHA. We’re barely competitive and almost a team of scrubs. I don’t know what we’ve refused to rebuild over the last 17 years. We’ve proved as fans that we’ll support this team throuhg lossing seasons, so why not get rid of our players who don’t have perineal all star potential for draft picks and build or trade our way into finding players to build a franchise around? Our current roster has only one guy that has that potential and that is Steph Curry.
What about Monta? Now I love Monta but the last time we had a winning season he was our first man off the bench! Definitely NOT our best player. If we’re going to be a better than .500 win/ loss record team, our best player is going to have to be much much better than he is.
We should’ve scraped this team a hundreded times. Probably as soon as we knew Steph could really play and the longer we wait the harder it gets. Because at this point, can we really start a rebuild AND keep Curry?
Balance - February 1, 2012
technically, he was a starter. he was just the 3rd option.
bigkino217 - February 1, 2012
oh yes. i guess that would be the year they traded JRich and we just barely missed the playoffs eventhough we still posted an above .500 win percentage. Good catch.
Balance - February 2, 2012
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