For the third game in a row, a member of the Warriors' "Big 3" (insert your own quip here) was missing. This time it was David Lee's turn to force us to wonder how much he's worth. Let's see if Synergy can help answer that question. Warning: The following post may contain conclusions that are jumped to and sample sizes that could star in a Broadway production.
First, let's take a look at the expected Synergy stats, using data from last season.
Click on a tile to pop-up the % and PPP for that play type.
|
|
GSW |
PHI |
||
|
PLAY |
% |
PPP |
% |
PPP |
|
ALL |
100 |
0.95 |
100 |
0.96 |
|
BALL |
12.2% |
0.87 |
11.5% |
0.81 |
|
CUT |
8.0% |
1.24 |
8.0% |
1.21 |
|
HAND |
2.2% |
0.93 |
1.9% |
0.92 |
|
ISO |
13.2% |
0.85 |
9.7% |
0.84 |
|
OTHER |
6.5% |
0.42 |
7.1% |
0.48 |
|
POST |
7.7% |
0.85 |
9.2% |
0.90 |
|
REB |
6.0% |
1.02 |
5.6% |
1.10 |
|
ROLL |
4.8% |
1.00 |
5.8% |
1.11 |
|
SCREEN |
4.6% |
0.90 |
5.0% |
0.88 |
|
SPOT |
20.5% |
1.03 |
20.9% |
1.05 |
|
TRANS |
12.4% |
1.17 |
13.1% |
1.14 |
Based on prior expectations, Phoenix and GSW actually appear fairly similar on offense. Now, let's look at what happened in yesterday's affair (not to remember).
Click on a tile to pop-up the % and PPP for that play type.
|
PHI@GSW |
GSW |
PHO |
||||
|
|
% |
# |
PPP |
% |
# |
PPP |
|
ALL |
100.0% |
97 |
0.89 |
100.0% |
105 |
0.97 |
|
BALL |
13.4% |
13 |
0.38 |
10.5% |
11 |
1.55 |
|
CUT |
12.4% |
12 |
1.17 |
7.6% |
8 |
1.00 |
|
HAND |
1.0% |
1 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
0 |
N/A |
|
ISO |
11.3% |
11 |
0.73 |
8.6% |
9 |
0.89 |
|
OTHER |
8.2% |
8 |
0.25 |
3.8% |
4 |
0.50 |
|
POST |
10.3% |
10 |
0.90 |
16.2% |
17 |
1.00 |
|
REB |
5.2% |
5 |
0.80 |
9.5% |
10 |
0.70 |
|
ROLL |
5.2% |
5 |
1.00 |
3.8% |
4 |
1.00 |
|
SCREEN |
4.1% |
4 |
1.25 |
1.9% |
2 |
1.00 |
|
SPOT |
24.7% |
24 |
1.25 |
26.7% |
28 |
1.04 |
|
TRANS |
4.1% |
4 |
1.00 |
11.4% |
12 |
0.67 |
Overall, the Suns performed pretty much right at expectations. Whatever efficiency they lacked on transition offense (0.67 PPP), they more than made up for on the pick and roll (1.55 PPP), with Nash hitting a bunch of clutch shots. To these eyes, it appeared that Curry was mostly to blame for not being able to stick with Nash late in the game. I assume his ankle is still bothering him, but, of course, WE ARE A NO EXCUSES BASKETBALL TEAM. While the Suns killed us on the PNR, on our side, not so much. Our BALL efficiency was much lower than expected, a measly 0.38 PPP. Woeful. So, overall, our defense was not quite as vaunted as Mark Jackson would want, and our offense appears to have taken a step back from last season. Based on the last three games (I know, small sample size, but still...), it really does look like Curry, Ellis, and Lee, are the core of this team the way it is currently constructed. With all three, we are about an average team (yay?), but if any one of them is out, it could be tough sledding.
0 recs | 29 comments
Great analysis, Evanz! Agree, that trio is (all) we got! Missing some proven pieces from last year that could contribute efficiently and in a hurry on offense (Reggie, Rad).
Offensively we are weaker. It remains to be seen if any improvement on defense can compensate for that! Below average is my assessment.
dinohealth - January 3, 2012
Because we go no PNR!!
ILoveWarriorsGirls - January 3, 2012
we need this guy's D to stop Nash
http://www.nba.com/playerfile/jeremy_lin/
ILoveWarriorsGirls - January 3, 2012
Which could be a good thing, so long as the sled slides all the way into the bottom 7 of the league.
Realistically, it almost seems as if we’re making a concerted effort to land in the #8-12 range, so we can forfeit our pick.
[Great stuff as always, Evan!]
Sleepy Freud - January 3, 2012
maybe we can get some lottery luck?
bigkino217 - January 3, 2012
we really are due!
PIRATEWARRIOR - January 3, 2012
thanks
it’s fun to look at those treemaps even if one doesn’t have any clue what they mean ;)
Evanz - January 3, 2012
im waiting for some computer savvy individual to post a pic of klay on top of a tank with his head gear on..
and im not klay bashing either, i think since his defense has been passable (judging from ppls comments) he can be a decent player once he begins to light up the scoreboard!
PIRATEWARRIOR - January 3, 2012
Some day...
…those sample sizes will get implants and make an unforgettable appearance on Californication, lol.
Bigmouth - January 3, 2012
lol
those are some good sample sizes on that show
Evanz - January 3, 2012
BTW, those visualizations are very cool!
Bigmouth - January 3, 2012
Ekpe Udoh had a bad rebounding game. But his per 36 rebounding is still 7.9 this year compared to 6.3 last year. Let’s cross our fingers that he can keep it up. Anyone else following his progress? Only a few games played, but it’s still a good sign.
Naticus - January 3, 2012
like it
PIRATEWARRIOR - January 3, 2012
Every time I watch Curry, I start thinking more like Atma
If ONLY we kept Nellie one extra year. Would have been wonderful for his development offensively.
tafkasam - January 3, 2012
Keep in mind, he’s not entirely healthy right now. Plus, the season is just starting. Hopefully, he’ll come around.
Naticus - January 3, 2012
Serious? We don't want Curry to keep the ball. If you look on the synergy, we got too much ball and too little post play.
Nelson would have increased the TRANS, but still would have had a lot of ball and cut (am assuming a cut leads to a perimeter shot or attack at the rim (?).
callahan - January 3, 2012
trade him to PHX
play him with Nash and watch flourish…plus it would make really happy.
it’s win win
2NASHTY - January 3, 2012
Rewatching some of the plays
We just didn’t have aggressive pick and roll D. Curry often went under the screen and allowed Nash to spot up and shoot an open jumper. Of course, when the big man did hedge out hard, Steve Nash made some nice passes. Sometimes this hard hedge did force Nash to kick it to someone else on the perimeter, but after that they could just reset and run another pick and roll. And while defensive rebounding was a problem, another problem was our offensive rebounding – we just didn’t challenge the Suns enough on the offensive boards when they are not a good rebounding team.
doubleteapot - January 3, 2012
Another part of the problem was that we sometimes switched to zone
Zones give up offensive rebounds
doubleteapot - January 3, 2012
Actually, zone rebounding looked okay on second thought
Not as bad as I thought it was
doubleteapot - January 3, 2012
quit arguing you two! ( :
PIRATEWARRIOR - January 3, 2012
They figured out our zone after we used it the first time
Just have someone (usually Jared Dudley) cut to the middle
doubleteapot - January 3, 2012
lol, so it only worked that one time out of a timeout? Haha.
kenntoe - January 3, 2012
it could becuase
it worked for Philly, Steve had a horrible shooting night. they went under the pick and he clanged away for 2 of 11…it may have in Jackson scouting report.
2NASHTY - January 3, 2012
d wright has been a ghost offensively
hes been grabbing rebounds and has been playing alright on D but on the other end of the court he’s gone. he’s never looking to finish after pump faking and is always passing off….
Staticlysmic - January 3, 2012
hahaha
LMAO at your screen name!
Duby Dub Dubs - January 3, 2012
Is this gonna
be the story of the season. We gonna struggle against team with crafty Point Guard. I mean we stop Derrick Rose. But Derrick Rose ain’t Chris Paul and Steve Nash. Derrick Rose is a attack first PG.
mykelala01 - January 3, 2012
Good there aren’t too many CP3’s and Nash’s.
Evanz - January 3, 2012
Whoa. I like the synergy.
As for Curry, his ankle passed the tests, so he was good to go. If he wasn’t, then he should not have been playing since we do not want him injured again.
callahan - January 3, 2012
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